May 30th Quick Pitching Notes
Memorial Day – Early Slate Pitching Thoughts
Happy Memorial Day to everyone! For those of you with family I hope you’re out enjoying time with them; for those of you with friends, I hope you’re barbecuing things and drinking alcohol; for those of you with neither friends nor family, I also hope you’re barbecuing things and drinking alcohol. Though hopefully not alone. Or at least in moderation…
Here are my thoughts on the early slate for pitching. Remember, I’m looking at this from a DraftKings angle, though much of the advice transfers over to those of you playing FanDuel, as most of my DailyRotoSharks brethren does. I’m also going to deviate a little from my usual format. Instead of going pitcher by pitcher, I’ll go game by game. Let’s see how that works!
White Sox (Quintana) v. Mets (Harvey)
Vegas has this pegged as low-scoring, but I am not sure. I think this will go one of two ways—shutout or blowout. On one side, you have Matt Harvey, who has been an utter nightmare. His peripherals back up his bad numbers, though he hasn’t quite been as bad as a 6+ ERA. There are a million reasons not to pick him—chiefly his 27.4% LD rate (really bad) and his inability to simply get guys out. I’ll give you some reasons he’s not a terrible GPP pick. He’s cheap at a measly $6200. He apparently has (maybe) figured out the issue in his delivery which will help him right the ship. He’s Matt-freakin’-Harvey. And the White Sox, despite their success, aren’t lighting the world on fire vs. righties (avg K rate, 90 WRC+). Plus, Harvey is getting 10%+ Swinging Strikes, so expect his 18% K rate to rise. I thought Harvey made for a good GPP pick last time, and that didn’t pan out too well. This time, no?
On the other side you have Jose Quintana. He’s basically been the anti-Harvey. His ERA is a 2.22, but his SIERA is 3.47 (good, but not 2.22 good). He’s striking out 23.6% of hitters, but only getting 8.7% to swing and miss. That’s due for regression. He is allowing more hard-hit balls than Harvey, but just a 1.6% HR/FB rate. That’s due for regression—big time. His LD rate is 24% (not good). His numbers against lefties are WAY better than anything he has done in his career. He could have emerged into an elite guy, or he simply might be overperforming. All that said, the Mets are a plum matchup, as they strike out 27% of the time against lefties (oh my!), and their power is rather subdued against lefties. There’s some regression coming for Quintana, but it might not happen today.
Final analysis: Harvey: GPP only. Quintana: Cash or GPP, even at his high price.
Giants (Samardzija) v. Braves (Folty)
Don’t overthink this one. Samardzija probably the safest option for cash games on the early slate. It’s well documented that the Braves can’t hit. Shark is pitching very well. The Braves don’t K as much as one might like, but they have no thump at the plate. As long as you believe Shark’s 2015 troubles are behind him, he’s as solid (and as popular) a play as they come. I will caution you: His $12,200 salary is too high, and he’s got a history of being a pretty bad day game pitcher. For these reasons, I’m not playing him, but he’s still pretty safe.
Mike Foltynewicz is actually having a great campaign. He was a guy you could reliably stack against, but he’s putting together a rather unheralded year so far. His SIERA is 3.88, and he’s striking guys out at a 20%+ clip. Nice! He’s also priced at $6900. Really nice! Here’s what’s not so nice: the Braves offense isn’t good, so the win chance is diminished; the matchup against Samardzija underscores that problem; and the Giants are very good offensively. They don’t strike out, they walk a ton (and that’s been a problem in the past for Folty, even if it hasn’t been this year), and they are very dangerous. Giants lefties could eat him alive. I think he’ll struggle today, but that should keep his price and ownership low for the next time.
Final analysis: Samardzija: Cash. Folty: The longest of long shots for GPPs. You should avoid.
Red Sox (Wright) v. Orioles (Wilson)
Steven Wright is putting up surprising numbers which almost certainly won’t continue. He’s been really, really good, but his SIERA of 4.01 suggests that rocky roads are ahead. The Orioles can be had for Ks, but they can also launch HRs at a prodigious rate. None of them can hit the knuckleball very well, so I like Wright as a not-too-expensive GPP play, but there’s some risk here.
Tyler Wilson is a no-go for me. He strikes no one out and is facing a Red Sox team who can hit anyone and anything. He has done a good job at limiting damage, but he will not continue to have his success against righties (.182 BABIP). This looks like a bad matchup, even at the bargain price of $5300. Anything can happen, but Tyler Wilson having a good fantasy day seems unlikely.
Final analysis: Wright: GPPs. Wilson: No.
Cardinals (Martinez) v. Brewers (Guerra)
Carlos Martinez feels like the house on the market that just won’t sell. His price keeps falling, now down to $7400, but with good reason. This is a guy who was awesome last year and started out 4-0 this year, but has since looked pretty bad. None of this numbers jump off the page, though he does keep the ball on the ground a bit. He is facing the Brewers and their 27% K rate vs righties, so the GPP upside is there for you. I took him last week and got both the great (7 Ks) and awful (6 runs), but I don’t know what to tell you this time around. The Cubs can hit—much better than the Brewers—but CarMart has been bad. I would take him in a GPP.
Junior Guerra has been really interesting this year. Striking out a lot of guys, which is good considering his GB rate and his hard-hit rate are both not very good. Now gets the pleasure of facing a very tough STL lineup. He costs virtually the same as Carlos Martinez, and in this game, I like Martinez better. I’ll pass here.
Final analysis: Martinez: GPP only (and say some prayers). Guerra: No go.
Twins (Santana) v. Athletics (Graveman)
I am not particularly enamored with Ervin Santana today. Ho hum numbers, but he does come pretty cheap. The matchup is basically the same as the one Harvey has against the White Sox, but with less K upside. Also less of a chance to get blown up by being a terrible pitcher. Has a good history in OAK. I like him—but don’t love him—as a cash play.
Kendall Graveman is a pitch-to-contact guy, which never bodes well for DFS purposes, and he just isn’t all that good to boot. That also never bodes well. MIN is a weak offense all around, but with little K upside and a Vegas line that doesn’t like him, I’m not a fan. Even at (and perhaps especially at) his low price.
Final analysis: Santana: Cash only. Graveman: Fade.
Reds (Straily) v. Rockies (Bettis)
Dan Straily’s low price is understandable today, even if it hasn’t been in weeks’ past. He’s a high-K guy whose peripheral stats suggest he will undergo some regression. I don’t hate high-K guys in GPPs, especially when they cost just $5000, but this is Coors Field. You’re a braver man than I if you go here.
Chad Bettis is not a bad pitcher, but he doesn’t strike many guys out, and this one is at Coors. His chances of being one of the top 2 guys (or even one of the top 10 guys) is really, really small. I will fade him, too.
Final analysis: Fade them both. It’s Coors.
Astros (McHugh) v. Diamondbacks (Edwin Escobar)
Collin McHugh’s price has fallen all the way to $6400, and for that reason, I think he makes for an interesting GPP play. He has also struck out 18 in his last two games. Now, ARI’s ballpark is a rough one for pitchers, and the D-Backs are decent at the plate, but this lineup isn’t the same without David Peralta in the middle. McHugh is not a “big strikeout guy,” and Arizona is not a “big strikeout team,” but if he’s on, he could give you 20+ pts at a price of $6400. I’d take that!
Edwin Escobar. Who? In short, been in the minors since he was a teenager. Used to have a big K arm but that is no more. Now he struggles to get 6-7 Ks per 9, walks a lot of guys, and is hittable at AAA. He’s likely up for one start. In this park, the Astros could really tee off on him. They might not do well, but even at $4700, I don’t see the point against such a potent Astros offense.
Final analysis: McHugh: GPP play I like. Escobar: No.
Padres (Cashner) v. Mariners (Karns)
I remember when Andrew Cashner was pretty good. That has not described his 2016. His K% is 16%, he walks nearly 10% of the guys he faces, and has both an ERA and SIERA just under 5.00. The Mariners have a pretty dangerous offense this year making Cashner an easy fade.
Nate Karns hasn’t been as good in real life as I imagined he has been in my head. That said, he’s as solid as they come today. Padres have just as weak a lineup as the Braves, but they strike out more (and do hit for a little more power). This one is away from Petco, but Karns has the potential to rack up a lot of Ks. If he keeps the walks under control (SD doesn’t walk often), he’ll be in a good spot. Like him for either format, but I like I better in cash.
Final analysis: Cashner: No. Karns: Love him in cash, like him in GPPs.
Dodgers (Wood) v. Cubs (Hammel)
This is one of those games that screams GPP!! Alex Wood is coming off a scratched start (due to injury) but has been lights-out this year—25.2% Ks, a 3.35 SIERA, and has kept the ball on the ground (54.3%). The Cubs have the reputation of being a high strikeout team, but that hasn’t been true lately. They strike out at about 20% overall and 19% against lefties. They have, of course, a significant amount of power against anyone. Looks like the wind will be blowing in. Given Wood’s K abilities, I like him as a GPP, but too much risk for cash.
Jason Hammel is a guy whose price reflects—I don’t know? An imperfect pricing algorithm, perhaps. He shut down 2 very good offenses in his last 3 starts and didn’t suck in the third one. That said, he should not be priced as the third highest pitcher in this slate, even against a LAD team that has lost its way a bit at the plate. There is nothing I see in his numbers which would justify the $9700 price tag. That said…no one else will see the justification, either, and he’s been pitching rather nicely this year. He should go very low-owned, especially when Karns vs. SD is $200 cheaper, so there is merit in playing him in GPPs. But only if you feel really good about his chances.
Final analysis: Wood and Hammel are both GPP plays.
Rangers (Holland) v. Indians (Tomlin)
Whatever happened to Derek Holland? Didn’t he used to have some strikeout upside? His K rate has now fallen so low, he has pitched himself out of all DFS contention for the time being. The Indians are far too good for this to be a useful play, even at $5100.
Josh Tomlin intrigues me. Does not strike out tons, but seems to keep the walks in check. He’s a polarizing figure, but over the past 12 months, would you believe me if I told you he was 14-2 with a 3.16 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00? Even better, he’s very efficient (part of that not striking guys out thing), and TEX has the 2nd lowest pitches per PA in the majors. Though they have some power, they can also be shut down. I certainly don’t hate him as either a cash or a GPP play, though I think he’s better suited for cash. $7900 suggests that the pricing hasn’t caught up to his results yet.
Final analysis: Holland: No. Tomlin: Like him for cash, and he works as a GPP.
Good luck everyone!
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