June 2nd (Early Only) Quick Pitching Notes
For a little while, especially on days when I’m busy (which are days ending in “y”), I’m going to limit my pitching analysis to the guys that are either at the top or at the bottom of the DailyRotoSharks.com/MLB-Cheat-Sheet. Don’t get me wrong, I like doing my full analyses on the whole slate, but I think it’s better I get you something than nothing at all!
Tonight, it’s a rough slate, but the sheet identifies a few plays worth exploring, and a few worth avoiding. I think the ones at the bottom are most interesting and offer up a good way to differentiate yourself in GPPs.
But first, the guys at the TOP:
Nicasio: The Cheat Sheet likes him the best, though that’s not saying much. Typically, a rating of 6.8 is just OK, but on a sloppy slate, we take what we can get! Nicasio was a K king in spring training, but he’s had his ups and downs in the regular season. Been pretty solid against righties, but not as good against lefties. What really stands out is his 23.2% K rate. That’s due to fall, given his 7.6% SwStr%, but the Marlins have really been struggling. They haven’t been striking out much recently, but they aren’t hitting the ball at all (ISO of .105, WRC+ of 77 in last week). He’s not a slam-dunk play, but no one tonight is. His price [which is much higher on FD], his ability to limit the hard hits, his strikeout potential, and the Marlins struggles lately make him a good play tonight. You’ll want to save that salary for Coors.
Pineda: For those of you using the sheet, Pineda will present a test of faith. He’s been really bad lately and gets the pleasure of facing a dangerous Tigers team at home. So why is he #2 on the sheet? Would you believe me if I told you his SIERA is the 2nd best for the night at a respectable 3.58? His K% (23.4%) is actually low given his whopping 13.4% SwStr%. Guys have been squaring him up lately, but not too drastically. Frankly, he’s been just a bit unlucky. DET has been hitting ok lately, but they do K a fair amount. Dangerous lineup, sure, but Pineda’s stuff for $7100 against a team that can K? I can get with that. Nicasio/Pineda together would leave you gobs of salary to play with.
Anderson: Here’s a guy that everyone can agree on. Chase Anderson goes up against a punchless Phillies lineup. Even if the Brewers lose, Anderson should have a solid game. His #3 rating tonight reflects a few weaknesses, though. His Hard-hit% is really bad at 37% for the season (and 36% over the last 2 weeks), and his K rate is just 18% for the season (a little higher lately). He has also managed to go more than 5 innings just 3 times (6, 6, and 8.2), and that’s not good (and wouldn’t be reflected in the sheet!). Oh, and he’s the underdog today against Eickhoff. In the end, he’s got a great matchup, and there’s lots of awfulness elsewhere on the slate. But on DK, I’m fading him and his $8300 salary and his high ownership.
Eickhoff: Eickhoff is a guy I like better than the sheet does. MIL strikes out a ton, they are on the road, and Eickhoff is a good pitcher with some decent K abilities. The cheat sheet dings him for two main reasons: his Ks have been down a bit recently, and MIL—though striking out a ton—has been mashing the ball lately. Though the sheet doesn’t reflect it, Eickhoff K’d 7 in his prior start vs MIL but also yielded 7 runs (in MIL), so it’s a mixed bag. He’s slightly favored, which is saying something given the PHI offense. I think the fact MIL is out of the offense-friendly park hurts them and helps Eickhoff. So, even though he’s a close #4 behind Anderson on the sheet, I think he’s more likely to wind up in the top 3. There is some risk, though.
Porcello: Porcello has been pitching well all season, but he’s trending the wrong way, and the cheat sheet reflects this. BAL presents the same sort of matchup MIL does (a few less Ks but less Hard% as well), but his Contact% is up, his Ks are down, and his Hard% is up over his season-long numbers. That’s not good. He still has favorable overall numbers (SIERA is 3.61, K% is 22.4%, and his walks are a low 5.3%), and the O’s can certainly rack up the Ks—and the XBHs—so there’s a reason he’s #5, but he’s far too expensive for me to feel comfortable using today.
Bottom pitchers:
Coors Field features Alfredo Simon. I don’t need to explain why that’s the top target tonight, so I won’t. Eddie Butler clocks in a little higher due to the Reds struggles, but you can look away from him, too.
I want to focus on two other names: Colin Rea and Wade Miley. That game is being played at Petco, and with a game on tap at Coors—featuring crappy pitchers—you can be assured that no one (no one!) will be on this game. That may be a mistake. Look, Petco is a pitcher’s haven, but offense does happen there. I suggest you look at the hitters some. Rea has been pretty awful—no Ks, lots of hard-hit balls lately, and a SIERA near 5. Seattle can crush the ball. Miley has been marginally better, but not that much, esp. not lately. San Diego has quietly become league-average against lefties, and though they K a lot, they aren’t pushovers. People will see “Petco” and think “There must be better plays.” Don’t fall into that trap. Give this game some serious consideration. Crappy pitching loses against crappy hitting just as much as good pitching beats good pitching!
Good Luck Tonight!
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