May 3rd Quick Pitching Notes
May 3rd Quick Pitching Notes
June 9, 2016 Main Slate Pitching Thoughts
Well, you couldn’t have a different slate tonight! Last night, we had a bunch of aces and then some mid-priced and cheap guys worth playing.
Today we have junk. A lot of it. The sheet reflects it, too. I’ll run through what I see, though this might be a bit different than the normal analysis.
One other note: I’m going on vacation all the way until the 19th, so you’re going to have to survive without the notes for a little while! I’m sure the guys at DailyRotoSharks will keep you well-informed, though. They’re a good bunch and super-smart. I’ll be around sporadically on Twitter, but nothing official from me for a bit.
Onto the analysis!
Guys who aren’t that terrible:
Gio Gonzalez: It’s clear (to me anyway) that Gio will be very popular, and that’s fair. He’s been solid this year, with some good stretches, and some bad ones. He draws the White Sox who have been pretty bad recently. Gio’s season-long numbers look remarkably average, but he’s been on an upswing lately, which includes improving on a 33% hard-hit rate. On any other slate, and I suggest you look somewhere else. Tonight, he may not be the top option, but he’s in the mix for both cash and GPPs.
Nate Karns: In my opinion, he’s the top play. He’s got a better-than-average ability to strike guys out, and he limits the hard contact to a good degree. The walks are a bit of a problem, but he’s been going well. As you can see from last night, the Indians can be victimized with strikeouts (yeah, Taijuan Walker!). They do still have the ability to hit, but Karns at home is a good bet to do well. Lowest Vegas total on the night, and he’s favored to win. I like him for cash and GPPs. The sheet has him way behind Gio; some of that is Karns’ recent performance, and some of it is Cleveland’s. I still think he has the best upside, at least by the numbers. He will likely have the most ownership because of it, so if you want to zig when others zag, perhaps you play the fade here. Or even play the double fade and stack some CLE hitters.
Guys who might not be that terrible:
Bartolo Colon: The sheet hates him, and I get that. But he’s a guy who manages to get results, and he won’t keep striking out absolutely no one. MIL, while having a powerful lineup, can also be struck out. Very good chance he stinks, but on a slate where you can say that about nearly anyone…
Jimmy Nelson: On the other side of the ball, Nelson has some ability to get Ks, and the Mets are somewhat depleted. This strategy didn’t work out yesterday with Taillon, but it’s still not a bad strategy. Nelson can be very, very hittable, but the upside is somewhat there.
Tom Koehler: This is more about the matchup, as Koehler has been really shaky. His Ks are low, and his walks are high. He does limit the hard contact, but he allows too much contact. Minnesota is depleted, though, and they didn’t have a great offense to begin with. I am not sure I see the upside here, but there isn’t as much downside as other contests. I expect ownership to be pretty low, so that may work in your favor if you choose to use him for GPPs.
Adam Wainright: He’s a shell of his former self, and I get that. He’s also facing CIN at GABP, which is not good. The Reds have scored 7 runs in two straight games. But he’s not nearly as bad as he was earlier, and though he is still hittable, he’s had a couple respectable games in a row against teams that are pretty good. CIN isn’t nearly the offense that SF or WAS is. There’s plenty of risk here, but I don’t mind the pick for GPPs.
Ivan Nova: I’m intrigued. Pretty good SIERA, a K rate that should trend upwards, and facing an Angels team that is very weak. The trouble, of course, is that as bad as the Angels are, they are good at putting the ball into play (and then getting out). That’s not great for DFS, as you want Ks. If the Yankee offense really is heating up, though, Nova could be an easy source of a win.
Marcus Stroman: Tons of talent, facing a team that Ks a lot but can also mash. A big-time ground-ball hitter (good) facing a team with lots of flyball hitters (not so good). I can see how he has a good night, and I can see how he gets shelled. Given that there’s a lot of work out there which shows how fly ball hitters do better against ground ball pitchers, I’d beware.
Josh Tomlin: Vegas likes him. He’s a good pitcher who has had a pretty good year, but he’s prone to get smacked around hard. Could do ok because he’s not too bad, but SEA is still dangerous. A Hard% of 36% is extremely bad. I will likely stay away, but I see the merit in considering him.
Guys who probably are that terrible:
Everyone else. I don’t like anyone else, and that includes Ervin Santana. Santana could be put in the above category, but I think his ownership will be high enough that people will get burned a little bit. I’m sure you can roster Santana, now that I’ve guaranteed he’ll do well,
In the end, this is a really ugly slate. Your best bet is to play lightly, enter some GPPs, and move off the “safe” plays to the guys who are risky but have upside. Guys like Nova/Wainright/Nelson. I’d still use one of either Gio or Karns, but try not to be too tempted by the safe plays (unless you’re playing cash games, but this is not a night for that!).
Good luck everyone, and see you again on the 20th!! As always, you can catch me on Twitter at @msonichdrhass.