With all due respect to the Masters, I believe the US Open is the best tournament of the year. With the USGA at the helm, all US Open courses are setup to test every aspect of a golfer’s game. This year, Oakmont will be no different. The course is a treacherous par 70 measuring over 7,200 yards and has over 200 bunkers scattered along it. With undulating greens and thick rough, expect the winning score to be over par, like it was in 2007. Phil Mickelson, who is vying for his first US Open to complete the grand slam, once called this course “the hardest I’ve ever played.” This speaks a lot to the challenge these golfers will face. Without further ado, here are some of my picks for the $20 Millionaire Maker on Draftkings.
Upper Tier ($12.5k-$9k)
Rory McIlroy ($12,000) — I could easily have put Day here, but in order to win the Million, you’re going to have to differentiate your lineups. Day will be the highest owned player, and what better to differentiate your lineups then playing a former No.1 player in the world? McIlroy will most likely be the lowest owned of the Big 3, making him one of my favorite plays of the week. He hits it long and accurate as well as possessing strong iron play as well. If he can get the putter going like he did at Memorial, he has a great chance at taking this tourney down.
Justin Rose ($10,500) — Coming off a withdrawal due to a back injury, it’ll be interesting to see what Rose’s ownership will be this week. He is never highly owned while healthy, so if the masses are scared to play him coming off an injury, I will hop on the train. The withdrawal last week was merely a precaution and he was seen hitting the range at Oakmont without problems. His game sets up very nicely for this course. He’s very long and a superb putter, a lethal combination to thrive at a US Open. A former US Open winner, don’t be surprised to see Rose in contention late on Sunday.
Henrik Stenson ($9,100) — Stenson is arguably my favorite play at the high end this week. He missed the cut at the Wells Fargo and the Players, but bounced back nicely with a T4 at the Nordea Masters. It wasn’t the strongest field so take it for what it’s worth. Oakmont doesn’t really set up to hit driver on most Par 4’s, which is where Stenson is at an advantage because he can belt his 3-wood long and accurate. A very strong iron player, but struggles when it comes to putting. With the greens rolling so fast this week, weak putters can get by with good ball striking if the elite putters are faltering as well. He won’t be highly owned and is looking to be a strong play for the Milly Maker on Thursday.
Middle Tier ($9k-$7k)
Patrick Reed ($8,400) — If Bubba and Poulter weren’t on the tour, I’m sure Patty Reed would be the most hated player. There’s something about his demeanor and cockiness that players and fans don’t seem to like about him. But hey, if he is a good golfer, then I’m looking to play him this week. Reed’s game sets up very well at this course. He is first in Strokes Gained Around-the-Green and second in scrambling. This is going to be very important as Par is the new Birdie at Oakmont. If Reed can save strokes by knocking it close to the pin from around the green, he is going to have a very good shot at being in contention on Sunday. It’s only a matter of time before the player with the most top 10’s on tour this year wins a major.
Brandt Snedeker ($8,000) — Not the longest player on tour, but a very accurate one. Snedeker can hit fairways and putt which is something I’m looking for at Oakmont. He’s had great success at US Open’s in the past. You can most likely attribute his success to his ability to knock down 7 and 8 foot par putts when others are missing them. An amazing scrambler and putter, nobody can get hot with his short game like he can. Not the best approach player, but can par the hell out of this course. I can see him mixing it up on the weekend.
Russell Knox ($7,600k) — I don’t know if there is anyone who is more of a statistical fit for this course than Russell Knox. He ranks 8th in driving accuracy and 4th in GIR, and is also 2nd in bogey avoidance. He hits fairways and greens and doesn’t bogey often. Sounds too good to be true? He isn’t a very strong putter and these are tough greens, but I’m hoping he can escape with only one or two three-putts over the weekend. A dark horse to win it all, and won’t be too highly owned as well.
Jason Dufner ($7,200k) — I’ll definitely be having some exposure to Duff Daddy this week. He always seems to play well at US Open’s. He only has one round over 70 in his last twelve events which says a lot about his recent form. I’m hoping the masses will be off of him because he is one of my favorite mid-range plays this week. If he can hit fairways like he know’s he can, he should be a good bet to play the weekend and maybe make some noise on Sunday.
Lower Tier ($7k and below)
Bill Haas ($6,900) — Haas has not played well recently, but Oakmont could be a course where he bounces back. He has one of the best short games on tour and hits fairways at a pretty high clip. He also is a pretty strong putter. He has the skill set to play well here and will not be highly owned at all. A good bet to make the weekend and hit value.
Kevin Na ($6,000) — Na is a name people recognize and is usually one of the higher owned value plays in these big events. However, he is accurate off the tee and doesn’t make a lot of bogeys. A strong track record at US Open’s (last three appearances are T29, T12, and T46), you can do a lot worse than having Na as one of your low priced guys this week. He should have a good shot at playing the weekend.
Chris Kirk ($6,000) — One of the more streaky players on tour, Kirk has the ability to get hot quickly. He isn’t a long hitter but he hits greens at a very high clip. He is a very strong sand player (16th in sand save %) which can come in handy when there are 200+ bunkers on the course. If he can get his putter going, he will be in the mix come the weekend. A very strong play who is likely to be low owned.
Andrew Johnston ($6,100) — With the nickname Beef, how can you go wrong? Johnston looks like he belongs in the WWE more than he does playing professional golf, but the Englishmen could do well here. He has very strong recent form, sporting a T12 and a T7 in his last two events on the Euro Tour. He is 10/13 cuts made with a win at the Open de Espana on the Euro Tour. Normally I am wary of Euro Tour players making their first start in the US at the US Open, but for his recent form and price tag, Beef is a value play that I’m taking a long, hard look at. He has no appeal to the casual fan which will leave his ownership very low. I will take a chance on him this week.
Sleepers:
Here are some guys I will take a chance on that I don’t think will be highly owned which is great for such a large field GPP.
Rickie Fowler ($10,700)
Jim Furyk ($7,700)
Kevin Kisner ($7,300)
Shane Lowry ($7,100)
David Lingmerth ($6,900)
William McGirt ($6,700)
Andy Sullivan ($6,400)
Lucas Glover ($6.200)
Jaco Van Zyl ($6,000)
Pick to Win:
With not that much scoring this weekend, this course is going to need someone that can avoid the high numbers and grind out pars. For that reason, I believe Brandt Snedeker takes home the trophy this week.
Good luck this week and I hope to see you all at the top of the leaderboard!
