Finding Value in NBA Slate for 3/25/2016
Since this is the first time I am posting this article to Daily Roto Sharks here is a little background on how I come up with my information. It’s a little math oriented so if you don’t understand the terms please hit me up on twitter @UndoneRSG.
I normalize the defenses using a Poisson Distribution model. If you are unfamiliar with math, it basically means if the defense is averaging a 1, they are a typical defense. If the defense has a number lower than 1, they are a better defense than average. If the defense has a number higher than 1, they are a worse defense than average. From those numbers I multiply them to a formula I came up with for how I expect a player to do based on recent and long term trends.
That gives me the projection for the day. I then find something I call $/PP (Dollars Per Point) for each player, which is based on a score of 250 points. If a player has a $/PP less than 200 he’s undervalued and over 200 he would be over valued. The farther away from 200 the more over or under valued a player is for the given night. All of this data is based on Draft Kings currently, but will soon be available for Fan Duel.
Link to “Draft Kings Projections
Point Guard
Target DvP: PHO
Stay Away DvP: TOR, MIA
A lot of value always come up to the top of the point guard list, and tonight is no different. The only problem is the majority of the value is hard to put any stock into. Collison, Bayless, and Price are the top three players on the value list with Collison and Bayless playing over 30 minutes a game over the last three weeks. Bayless is not really the point man, but still can knock down triples and has a chance to be involved with the growing Bucks offense. Collison has been starting at shooting guard over the last few games for an injured Ben McLemore and Price is a backup in Phoenix, but now has Knight to deal with taking his minutes. If you are looking for a high level option, Rajan Rondo and Kyle Lowry are both in great positions tonight. Rajan is going against the “worst” point guard defense over the last three weeks.
Shooting Guard
Target DvP: HOU
Stay Away DvP: WAS, DET
Finally, someone other than Will Barton and Zach LaVine to jump to the top of the list. Our man tonight is Kobe Bryant, this is the first time he has reached the top of the list. Obviously, you really have to pay attention to his status for tonight, but he playing against the Denver Nuggets and the other two on the list are Barton and Harris. If you are trying to deifier between these three Barton has the most upside, Harris plays the most minutes, Kobe is Kobe. If you are going to stay away from that game then Derozen is in a favorable matchup tonight against the Rockets. Other options are LaVine, Middleton, and Thompson
Small Forward
Target DvP: DEN
Stay Away DvP: CHA, SAS, WAS
One of the hardest places to find value tonight is the small forward position. Bazemore, Barnes, and Rudy Gay are all at the top of the list tonight. I really like Barnes tonight, he is in a good matchup with the Mavericks (especially if Parsons is out) and he has been playing 31 minutes a game. When someone is averaging over 31 they may not blow up the stat sheet, but it gives them more opportunities for defensive stats and that’s always a good thing for fantasy points. Highest projection on the night is Kawhi Leonard at 40 points against the Memphis Grizzlies, but that game could get really out of hand.
Power Forward
Target DvP: SAC, DEN
Stay Away DvP: SAS, TOR
The most valued player, based on my model, Brandon Bass of the Lakers. He has quietly been putting up some great numbers over the last few weeks and his price doesn’t seem to increase much. He is in a good matchup against a Nuggets team that struggles to guard the power forward position and could be in for another night, the only downside on him is his inability to play more than 25 minutes a game. This also puts, Julius Randle in a good position tonight and a stack of the two may not be the worst idea in the world. Top options are DeMarcus Cousins, LMA, and Paul Millsap with Boogie being the best out of that bunch.
Center
Target DvP: GSW, MIL, CHA, HOU
Stay Away DvP: DEN
When you are targeting a center tonight, you have a lot of nice options points wise, but value is just not there. The top value guys are Nurkic and Monroe with Monroe getting ten more minutes a game and being just a safe all around pick. If you are worried about Nurkic you could easily go with Jokic, who is in the same position just not as undervalued. For top level guys it’s really the usual suspects, Drummond, Howard, and Karl-Anthony Towns are the guys. Out of that list they are really all in the same position, but Howard is playing the toughest defense.
Thanks for reading and good luck tonight! If you have any lineup questions feel free to ask me on twitter, or just leave some comments below. I don’t much care just telling someone to play a certain player because in projections there is never a sure thing.
Chris Hollander (@UndoneRSG)
