June 6 – Main slate pitching thoughts
Ah, Monday slates are like a breath of fresh air. The big slates are great, but they are tougher to deal with as they have so many moving parts. These smaller slates allow you more time to dig into your research and—for me—allow me more time to look at the pitching options. I’m typing these up while on jury duty, so I have little better to do!
Today’s Cheat Sheet, and today’s small slate, are leading me to talk about the top and bottom 4 instead of 5. Just how it breaks out today! The pricing across the two sites are markedly different, and if you’re playing on DK, that’s going to weigh heavily on your decision. But for now, here are the top and bottom of today’s Cheat Sheet:
Shoemaker: If you look at the advanced statistics, this one should not come as a surprise. His SIERA is a respectable 3.74, His K% is 22.8% which is actually a tad below what one might expect given his 13.8% SwStr rate. He limits the hard hits well enough, though gives up a few too many line drives. Two distinguishing factors that propel him to the top—he has been very good after a rough start, and the Yankees have not been. Mind you, he’s this high on the chart despite getting smacked around by Detroit. He’s a sizeable underdog, so ownership should be low. The Yankees are always a threat, but this looks like a sneaky good spot for Shoemaker. He’s so far ahead on the Cheat Sheet, that you should give him some serious consideration. A $7700 price tag on DK makes it even nicer.
Paxton: SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT!! James Paxton’s cheat sheet numbers are based almost entirely on his last start, so you’ll have to dig a bit deeper. When you do, you’ll see some interesting things. Like blowing up the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League with a ton of strikeouts. Like 7 Ks in 3.2 innings in his first start. Like a 4.2% BB rate and a 2.71 SIERA. But there’s also plenty of bad to be found in that first start—8 runs, 10 hits vs. SD in Petco. He’s coming off injury, too. Folks I’ve read who have written about Paxton, and know about him, love his potential. Let’s throw some more intrigue in here: Cleveland has been one of the hottest teams recently. So, why does he rank up there so high? Well, the Indians aren’t as good against lefties, and his first start wasn’t as bad as it seemed. That’s really the extent of it. In the end, this is a very high risk and very high reward option. You might fail, or he might take you to glory. Trust the sheet, but understand that it’s based off of one start.
Ray: Here you have a pitcher who can get Ks against a team who strikes out a lot. Moreover, TB has not been particularly good in the last couple weeks. But there’s a number of red flags you should be aware of: first, TB has been very dangerous against left-handed pitching this year (23.7% Ks, but a WRC+ of 121, and an ISO of .207). Second, the recent coldness of TB’s hitters has been largely at the hands of right-handed pitching, so it may not inform us as much here. Third, this one is in Arizona (aka “Coors Lite”). Fourth, the sheet doesn’t consider walks, and that’s a huge problem for Ray. There is some real GPP upside here, but there is also some real risk. I don’t like the play today, but it’s not crazy to chase that upside.
Duffy: Here’s the play I’m excited about. How is he $4300 on DK?? That’s virtually minimum-priced! Sadly, I think that will keep ownership high on him. Here’s what I see: nearly a 27% K rate strongly supported by a 16.4% SwStr rate (wow!), a SIERA of 3.10, a Hard% of just 26% and less than 5% BB rate. Those are great numbers. Some of them were gained in the bullpen, so you should certainly look at them differently, but this is still pretty good. Two red flags here: he’s still pitch-count limited (just 75 last start, perhaps 85-90 this start), and he gives up a lot of fly balls, which could be trouble against Baltimore. We all know about the Orioles: high-K, high-octane offense. This play is not without risk, but I think Ray is a much riskier pick, and for the price, you should really consider Duffy. He could easily return 3-4X salary on DK.
What about…
Fulmer? Could be great, but TOR is pounding lately. Matz? Having a great year, but PIT not an ideal matchup. Perez/Friedrich? There will be a chance to take advantage of this ATL-SDP series at Petco, but this is probably not it. I am willing to stake a lot on the idea that these two (probably Friedrich over Williams) will be over-owned tonight. Archer? I’m very intrigued. There’s nothing in the numbers that suggest he’ll snap out of his funk, but it’s Chris Archer, and this is one damn cold D-Backs offense. No one will go here because of the legitimately difficult matchup, but boy could it pay off for those of you bold enough to do it.
And now for the bottom 4:
Tanaka: Your eyes should be popping out of your head right about now. Tanaka, at home, against the Angels, and he’s last on the chart?? Here’s why: his Ks have evaporated in his last two starts (6 Ks in 13 IP against TB and TOR, and his start against OAK before that was 4 Ks in 7 IPs), his Hard-Hit rate is up significantly over his season numbers (and that has not shown up in the results yet), the Angels simply don’t strike out, and they’ve been hitting the ball much better lately. This may not be a spot to stack the hitters—ok, it’s not—but Tanaka may be the biggest disappointment of the night. You’d be wise to avoid him.
Bauer: I think he’s pitched better than he shows up on the chart, but he’s gotten merely average results, and Seattle has been very, very good lately. The strikeouts will be tougher to come by, and the blow-up potential is there, or at a minimum, he’s likely to give up a few runs. He’s also the underdog. I have not parsed the entire slate to see if I agree with what the sheet is telling us today, but I do think he won’t be very relevant for fantasy purposes.
Lewis: This guy. He’s not a good pitcher, but here he sits with a 3.09 ERA and has scored respectable numbers of points in 3 of his last 4 starts. He’s down here because he doesn’t strike guys out, and despite Houston’s struggles, they are always a danger to go off. I’m done trying to predict how Colby Lewis will pitch in any given start—‘cause he has been burning me and everyone else lately with his good performances—but this won’t last forever. Let’s make this easy: his price on FD is moderate, but still probably too high. His price on DK is $8700, which is absurd. You should not pay this much for a poor man’s Doug Fister.
Wright: This one is a little more straightforward. He’s not very good, and he’s facing a Royals team which doesn’t strike out and can hit pretty well, even if they aren’t a threat for multiple home runs. Tell me how he’s $200 more expensive than Danny Duffy on DK?? He’s one I might stack against.
So there you have it! Some odd pricing on DraftKings, and a whole host of GPP plays at your fingertips. Not many options I like for cash, but should be a fun slate to play! Good luck tonight, and feel free to hit me up on Twitter at @msonichdrhass
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