Finding Value in NBA Slate for 3/31/2016

All writing is based on Draft Kings pricing, but can be applied to Fan Duel in most situations.  The spreadsheet for today is just for Draft Kings.

If you have never read my article before, here is a little background on what I am trying to accomplish.  I normalize the defenses using a Poisson Distribution model. If you are unfamiliar with math, it basically means if the defense is averaging a 1, they are a typical defense.  If the defense has a number lower than 1, they are a better defense than average.  If the defense has a number higher than 1, they are a worse defense than average. From those numbers I multiply them to a formula I came up with for how I expect a player to do based on recent and long term trends. That gives me the projection for the day. I then find something I call $PP (Dollars Per Point) for each player, which is based on a score of 250 points. If a player has a $PP less than 200 he’s undervalued and over 200 he would be overvalued. The farther away from 200 the more over or under valued a player is for the given night.

Link to Projections

*Note*:  These are not meant for you to look at and take every player I have mentioned on this list.  This list is simply players that are undervalued and in good positions.  You need to look at the data and situations and make your own decisions on who you believe to be in the best position for the night.  Also, some players may be ruled out that are in the data set, make sure to follow some sort of injury app like Basketball Monster or Fantasy Labs NBA to get the most up to data information on Twitter.  We also have a link on the front of our webpage.

Point Guard

Target DvP: HOU

Stay Away DvP: OKC, IND

After I say this he will probably score 35 points tonight, but I think we are safe to jump off the Tim Frazier train (if there even was one).  The point guards that are in the best positions tonight are Sloan, Beverly, and Smart.  I really like the spot Beverly in and needs to play well in an important game against the Bulls.  We are getting down to crunch time in the west and the Rockets need to win as many games as possible.  Another interesting name tonight is Toney Douglas against the Nuggets.  He has been played well (Go Noles) and isn’t being pushed for the starting position by much.  Top level projections are Westbrook, Thomas, and Irving.  Those guys are all on teams that have secured playoff spots and may not need a full load of minutes, therefore, look to their backups of Payne, Smart, and Delly if you think they will sit out a game.

Shooting Guard

Target DvP: HOU, BKN

Stay Away DvP: CHI

I cannot stress how difficult a time it is in the NBA to pick players.  There is little consistency in many players minutes which means projections are not as great this time in the season.  We are starting to get to a time that is more like NFL where players projections are a good base but can be varied.  For shooting guards, the most value can be found with Sean Kilpatrick, Gary Harris, or Will Barton.  I actually like Kilpatrick tonight going against the Cavs, he is such a low price that it would not take much for him to hit value.  Barton and Harris are really hit or miss on which one is a better pick, I will let you decide that.  Top dollar players include Harden, Oladipo, and Butler with Harden needing to play well for the Rockets to make the playoffs.  He has a tough matchup against Butler, but he is a solid player in any situation.

Small Forward

Target DvP: BKN, DEN

Stay Away DvP: None

Jordan Hamilton has slid to the top of the list with his solid play for the Pelicans.  If he starts again tonight, he may be a must take in any format given the amount of injuries the Pelicans have sustained.  Beasley and Ariza are solid options if you think Harden will delegate more of the offense to others against the Bulls, they both have good value and are in nice positions.  Top level players include Lebron James, Paul George, and Kevin Durant.  I am not sure what will happen with any of those players as far as playing goes.  I haven’t been on twitter this morning, but I do know a lot of the Clippers are being sat which may mean a blowout for the Thunder.  Statistically, James is in the best spot out of the three.

Power Forward

Target DvP: None

Stay Away DvP: OKC

Power forwards have the least amount of value on the slate tonight.  Ersan, Arthur, and Mirotic are the top three names on the list and none of them strike me as a must play on this slate.  It could be a night where you find value at other positions and take the top level guys at the PF spot.  That being said, Kevin Love and Thaddeus Young are the two players that have the highest projection for PF with Love being in a much better spot.  Statistically, Myles Turner and Jordan Hill of the Pacers are in the best position to succeed tonight against the Magic.

Center

Target DvP: NONE

Stay Away DvP: OKC, DEN

With Deandre Jordan out, I think Cole Aldrich jumps up to the top of the value chart tonight for the clippers.  The Thunder have a good defense against the center, but I don’t think they will play many of their top level guys considering who the Clippers have ruled out.  This situation really looks good for Enes Kanter and Steven Adams who will not have to deal with Jordan all night.  Kanter could be a great play if he winds up getting more minutes than Adams.  Josef Nurkic is at the top of the charts for players tonight, but is a scary pick considering he does not start.  Top level guys include Howard and Gasol with Gasol being in a better statistic position.

Thanks for reading and good luck tonight!  If you have any lineup questions feel free to ask me on twitter, but I don’t much care just telling someone to play a certain player because in projections there is never a sure thing.

Chris Hollander (@UndoneRSG)