Finding Value in NBA Slate for 4/1/2016

All writing is based on Draft Kings pricing, but can be applied to Fan Duel in most situations.

If you have never read my article before, here is a little background on what I am trying to accomplish.  I normalize the defenses using a Poisson Distribution model. If you are unfamiliar with math, it basically means if the defense is averaging a 1, they are a typical defense.  If the defense has a number lower than 1, they are a better defense than average.  If the defense has a number higher than 1, they are a worse defense than average. From those numbers I multiply them to a formula I came up with for how I expect a player to do based on recent and long term trends. That gives me the projection for the day. I then find something I call $PP (Dollars Per Point) for each player, which is based on a score of 250 points. If a player has a $PP less than 200 he’s undervalued and over 200 he would be overvalued. The farther away from 200 the more over or under valued a player is for the given night.

Link to Projections:

*Note*:  These are not meant for you to look at and take every player I have mentioned on this list.  This list is simply players that are undervalued and in good positions.  You need to look at the data and situations and make your own decisions on who you believe to be in the best position for the night.  Also, some players may be ruled out that are in the data set, make sure to follow some sort of injury app like Basketball Monster or Fantasy Labs NBA to get the most up to data information on Twitter.  We also have a link on the front of our webpage.

Point Guard

Target DvP: MIN, PHI
Stay Away DvP: UTA

I think the theme tonight is going to be value in the 76ers/Pelicans game, but does the value actually materialize?  That will be the question you have to answer yourself because this game could end up pretty ugly.  Right after I proclaimed that Tim Fraizer is a bad pick, he comes out and scores 19/13.  I truly don’t know what to make of this guy, but considering we are in the dying weeks of the NBA he seems like a solid pick at a good price point.  If he plays as many minutes as he did against the Nets, it is going to be really hard to stay away from him.  Dennis Schroder and Tony Parker are two other names high on the value list.  Schroder could pick up a few more minutes in the end of the season, while Parker will be doing whatever Popovich feels like that night (could be 10 or 30 minutes, I would lean on more minutes because rest at this point is not going to help for the playoffs).  Top level guys include Steph Curry, Russell Westbrook, and Chris Paul with Steph Curry being the best price and in the best position for tonights game.  He also has a ton to play for tonight.

Shooting Guard

Target DvP: PHI, DEN, LAL, OKC
Stay Away DvP: MIA, UTA, SAS, DET, CHI

A long list of teams to target and stay away from, which is odd because I feel like shooting guard has been a medium ground in terms of defense.  The most value of the entire season goes out to James Ennis at a value of 119.  He is averaging 28 minutes per game and has scored 1.02 points per minute this year, he is impossible not to put in cash and GPP.  Next names on the list are Gerald Henderson, Norman Powell, and Terrance Ross.  Gerald Henderson is in the best position tonight, but statistically all of these guys are the same and great value picks to fill out a lineup.  Top level projections include the usual crew with Klay Thompson being at the best price point and C.J. McCollum having the highest projection.  One more to look at tonight is J.J. Redick, he is in a really nice position tonight and if he can log the minutes he may be able to knock down a few threes.

Small Forward

Target DvP: DEN, PHI
Stay Away DvP: SAS, MIA

Jordan Hamilton jumps up to the top of the list for small forwards, honestly you could easily just take the entire Pelicans team tonight and be able to take a bunch of top level guys.  He has been averaging around 1 DK PPM over the last 10 games and is a solid cash or GPP pick.  If you are trying to fade this game, Matt Barnes is at a nice price against the Bulls but is a hit or miss type of guy.  Two names with the highest PPM for the price are Aminu and Teletovic, they are both in good spots tonight and are reasonable prices.  For top level players, LeBron James and Kevin Durant are both practically the same price for the same projection.  However, Durant is in a better statistical spot that James tonight, don’t think that really matters for either of these guys it just comes down to preference.

Power Forward

Target DvP: None
Stay Away DvP: SAS, OKC

Power Forward is probably the hardest spot to find good value tonight.  Luis Scola and Larry Nance Jr. are at the top of the list and neither of them are guys I particularly like to take in cash games.  They both have the chance to put up a 20/10 game, but you have to be pretty lucky to have this happen.  Ed Davis has been playing fantastic over the last ten games and if he can log a few more minutes tonight could be a great value pick.  Zach Randolph and Julius Randle are the first two solid names on the value list.  Both have been in good form averaging 1.19 and 1.07 PPM over the last ten, I would lean more on Randolph because the Grizzlies would like to finish the season strong and get their team chemistry back in my opinion.  Top level projections include DeMarcus Cousins, Draymond Green, and Paul Millsap with all three being in the same statistical position.

Center

Target DvP: SAC, GSW
Stay Away DvP: TOR, OKC, SAS, NOP, UTA

Jonas Valanciunas and Mason Plumlee are at the top of the charts tonight.  They seem to both be undervalued in the second half of the season, which is nice because I like rostering either of these guys.  Statistically speaking, Mason Plumlee is in the best position of any player tonight due to the Kings guarding the center position poorly over the last ten.  However, we have to take this with a grain of salt because if Cousins is back tonight then Plumlee will probably end up picking up 5 fouls in 10 minutes if we are being honest.  If you want to fade that whole situation you could easily take Alexis Ajinca or Biyombo who are both playing well over the last ten games and in decent positions for great prices.  Top level projections are easy tonight: Karl-Anthony Towns.  He is in a fantastic spot against the Warriors and will probably be leaned on heavily if the T’Wolves want to take down the champs.  Other options include Horford and Nurkic.

Thanks for reading and good luck tonight!  If you have any lineup questions feel free to ask me on twitter, but I don’t much care just telling someone to play a certain player because in projections there is never a sure thing.

Chris Hollander (@UndoneRSG)