Good Sam 500 – Phoenix
IT’S RACE DAY! I want to give a big shoutout to my good friend Joe Schroe. He’s an excel guru and he’s built one of the best Nascar DFS Models I’ve seen so far. Please give him a follow on Twitter @DFS_Analytics
Joe has done allot of work @RotoGrinders behind the scenes and he’s been kind enough to put together
a few picks for us here at DailyRotoSharks.com for this week’s Race.
Keep an eye out for more articles and content from @DFS_Analytics to be posted here each week.
Top Tier
Kevin Harvick ($10,800) – The Cactus King didn’t show very well in qualifying, but pay no mind to that, starting a little further towards the back just gives him potential for some easy position difference points. Harvick has by far the best history at this track, scoring over 100 DK points in each of the last 5 races here, including 4 wins and a 2nd place finish in a caution-shortened race. A case could be made to fade the 4 car, but that would be a very high risk proposition.
Kurt Busch ($9,600) – Kurt dominated all 3 practice sessions leading up to the race, finishing in the top 2 for best lap and best 10 consecutive lap speeds in each session. He starts 4th and has a good chance to lead some laps if he can get around the three-headed JGR monster at the front of the pack, which will be easier said than done.
Others to Consider – Kyle Busch ($10,000), Joey Logano ($9,900), Brad Keselowski ($9,700), Dale Earnhardt Jr ($9,200)
Middle Tier
Chase Elliott ($7,700) – Chase has shown well so far this season, if not for some bad luck. I like his prospects here for a few reasons. One, he has a pretty good starting position to acquire some position differential points. Two, he ran well in practice, and got some extended practice by running in the Xfinity Race and finishing 5th (on the same tire setup as the Sprint Series race).
Ryan Newman ($7,500) – Newman is a guy that will be a popular pick, and should be on your radar. His aggressiveness will play to his advantage at this track, and if he can stay clean I expect him to be able to move up and cover his salary.
Others to Consider –Austin Dillon ($6,800), Aric Almirola ($6,700), Paul Menard ($6,500)
Bottom Tier
Ty Dillon ($5,400) – This is another driver that is no big secret. Running in Tony Stewart’s car at the minimum DK Salary, the value is just too good to pass up. Use Dillon to offset the cost of running Harvick and/or a few other expensive options.
David Ragan ($5,900) – This is where most people will be going with Danica or Regan Smith, which I don’t see as bad options, but I’m going to go slightly off the board with David Ragan. He ran above average in practice, improved each session, and he’s had a few top 25 finishes here in the last few years.
Others to Consider – Casey Mears ($6,200), Danica Patrick ($6,000), Regan Smith ($5,500)
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