Wednday, July 29th Draftkings (Early Only)

Draftkings Top Plays — Wednesday (Early) July 29^th

Yesterday’s article was a success. We gave you Crush Davis as one of our sneakier “Top Plays” of the day, and he delivered huge, with 2 Home Runs vs Julio Terehan. Today, we’ve got a nice Split Slate and we’ve got some great plays on both slates. I’ll do my best to pick out a few for the Early Only slate, and I’ll post another article later focusing more on the Late (regular) Slate.

1B Anthony Rizzo ($4,800)

Rizzo gets my #1 Ranking this morning (he’s actually #2 on my sheet but I have a “hunch”). Rizzo enters the game today, without a home run in his last 10 games. To say “he’s due” is frowned upon in the DFS Community, so, I’ll just say this, He’s going to breakout, in a big way, very Soon… Today, Rizzo gets a matchup with the Rockies’ RHP Eddie Butler. There’s no kind way to say it, he’s simply awful, home or away, it doesn’t matter. In 34.2 Innings pitched in road games this year, he’s given up 38 hits, 15 earned runs, 4 HR and 20 BB while only striking out 18 batters. He’s a groundball pitcher, who has a GB% of 53% which is pretty good. Here is the kicker, when he does allow the batter to lift the ball, he has a very high HR/FB rate at 15%. Here is a little secret I’ve learned over the years playing MLB DFS, (pay attention) Groundball Pitchers generally try to keep the ball low (obviously) well, a RHP vs a LHB is a bad matchup in this regard, because LH Batters generally LOVE to hit the low ball. Rizzo has a 44% Fly Ball Rate with a 17% HR/FB Rate vs RH Pitching… Simply put, plug in Rizzo, take your 20 Draftkings Points and move on.

OF Nelson Cruz ($4,800)

Nelson Cruz went yard yesterday (Tuesday) one day after we predicted him to do so (Monday) will we get it right today? He’s got another dreamy matchup vs a bad left hander in the D’Backs Patrick Corbin. If you read my article on Monday, you know the numbers Cruz has vs LH Pitching. They’re so ridiculous, I’ll go ahead and post them again.
.445 wOBA – .292 ISO – 42% FB Rate – 41% Hard Hit % – 192 WRC+ 
This guy mashes lefties when he’s going up against a lefty, just plug him into your lineups and move on. Don’t overthink it, don’t try to outsmart everyone, just click that little green plus sign and move on.

2B Jason Kipnis ($4,700) – OF Michael Brantley ($4,600)

All of the Indians left handed batters are in play this Afternoon vs Jeremy Guthrie. The Tribe usually stacks the lineup with left handed batters and today should be no different. Kipnis will probably lead off, while Brantley is usually slotted in the 3 hole. Guthrie is god awful vs left handed hitters, allowing a .398 wOBA and a .328 Batting Avg. He also gives up fly balls at a rate of 40% to left handed hitters, which, bodes well on a day like today where the wind is blowing out to Right Field which creates a nice jet stream for lefties at “The Jake” errr, I mean Progressive Field. If you need further evidence of how good this matchup is, take a look at the Numbers for Kipnis; .384 OB% .362 wOBA and 137 WRC+. Brantley’s numbers are similar, with a .386 OB% and a crazy high .389 wOBA. If these guys can get some lift on the ball this afternoon, it will carry and it will end up in the seats.

That’s all for the Early slate, stay tuned as I’m going to try and post another article later in the day for the late slate.