All writing is based on Draft Kings pricing, but can be applied to Fan Duel in most situations.
If you have never read my article before, here is a little background on what I am trying to accomplish. I normalize the defenses using a Poisson Distribution model. If you are unfamiliar with math, it basically means if the defense is averaging a 1, they are a typical defense. If the defense has a number lower than 1, they are a better defense than average. If the defense has a number higher than 1, they are a worse defense than average. From those numbers I multiply them to a formula I came up with for how I expect a player to do based on recent and long term trends. That gives me the projection for the day. I then find something I call $PP (Dollars Per Point) for each player, which is based on a score of 250 points. If a player has a $PP less than 200 he’s undervalued and over 200 he would be overvalued. The farther away from 200 the more over or under valued a player is for the given night.
*Note*: These are not meant for you to look at and take every player I have mentioned on this list. This list is simply players that are undervalued and in good positions. You need to look at the data and situations and make your own decisions on who you believe to be in the best position for the night. Also, some players may be ruled out that are in the data set, make sure to follow some sort of injury app like Basketball Monster or Fantasy Labs NBA to get the most up to data information on Twitter. We also have a link on the front of our webpage.
Point Guard
Target DvP: DEN, WAS, PHI, LAL
Stay Away DvP: UTA, ORL, IND, MIL, CHA
Lot of factors that you need to think about tonight, and situations where you need to think if a player will get full minutes. Tony Parker and Jeremy Lin are at the top of the value board tonight. With the Spurs losing last night, we could see Pop going into rest mode with some of the older players on the Spurs which will open up a lot of minutes for guys like Simmons, Anderson, and Mills. If you are completely fading this spurs situation, Lin could be a great option. He is playing a struggling Nets team and is a backup and could see a ton of minutes if Kemba is rested. Tim Fraizer is another name to look out for tonight as the Pelicans try to get through the end of the season with an injury plagued team. Top projections include: John Wall, Kyle Lowry, and Chris Paul. Pay attention to starting lineups, injury reports, and minutes restrictions on twitter.
Shooting Guard
Target DvP: PHI, DEN, LAL
Stay Away DvP: MIA, UTA
As I have said for the past few days, James Ennis will be on the top of the leaderboard for the rest of the year for shooting guards, unless he has a major price increase. He is averaging 28 minutes a game and there will be little reason for the Pelicans to decrease the time that he is playing over the next few games. Courtney Lee is another low price option against the Nets tonight. While he doesn’t average the best points per minute, he is getting around 30-35 minutes each night and can easily find value for a low price tag. Kobe Bryant is a name to have on your radar for the final few games. Kobe will not want to go out with a 10 point night, just keep him in mind as the last few weeks of the season wind down. If you are looking for top options you have Batum, DeRozen, and Oladipo.
Small Forward
Target DvP: PHI, DEN, BOS
Stay Away DvP: MIA, UTA
Maybe I should have a completely different article for finding value in the Pelicans. Jordan Hamilton is at the top of the list again tonight. He is averaging about 28 minutes a game and is a solid pick against the Nets, if you don’t feel good about a bench player for the Pelicans you could grab Dante Cunningham for a lot less (he will be a GRIND to hit value). Carmelo Anthony is the second value pick on the list, but I am not sure how much he will end up playing tonight. He played 38 minutes against the Hornets the other night, who knows. Keep a watch on twitter for if Kyle Anderson is starting, if he is he could be a solid pickup at small forward. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Paul George are the top level projections with Giannis being in a better position.
Power Forward
Target DvP: MEM, DEN
Stay Away DvP: SAS, MIA, UTA
His status needs to be monitored, but Kristaps Prozingss is at the top of the value chart for a huge projection and a small price tag. If he plays he could end up being the best value play of the night. If not, Boris Diaw has great value and could easily draw the start tonight for the Spurs. While he hasn’t been playing well lately, Dirk Nowitzki needs to come in clutch to keep the Mavericks away from the Warriors in the first round of the playoffs. I think Dirk is due for a nice game. Top level projections include Lamarcus Aldridge (status needs to be watched), Zach Randolph, and Jabari Parker. I really like both Randolph and Parker tonight.
Center
Target DvP: CHA, PHI
Stay Away DvP: SAS, TOR, DEN
Boban Marjanovic, if he starts, will be a high owned low level pick for tonight. However, he will be highly owned for good reason as he has averaged 1.01 points per minute over the last ten games and seems to just be a smart player. Jusuf Nurkic and Jonas Valanciunas are also in nice value spots tonight. Nurkic will be playing backup to Jokic against the Spurs, but the Spurs could be a little light tonight and only be playing 8 players. Another good pickup could be Robin Lopez against the 76ers, again I am not sure how much the Knicks will be playing their starters but if they go a full game you can easily find value with the Knicks. Top level projections include Drummond and Whiteside.
Thanks for reading and good luck tonight! If you have any lineup questions feel free to ask me on twitter, but I don’t much care just telling someone to play a certain player because in projections there is never a sure thing.
Chris Hollander (@UndoneRSG)
